Forecasts, data, and discussion for Australian elections

Independent insights into historical and upcoming elections, providing forecasts, data, in-depth analysis, and a place to discuss with others.

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Victorian Election 2026

79%Liberal win probability

LIB 79%ALP 13%

How can we predict the One Nation vote at the upcoming Victorian election?

While we Australians can usually rest a great deal of analysis on polling estimates, understanding how these votes will be distributed across the electorates is always the real challenge. For this reason, while we can see One Nation’s rise in popularity show in polling, and certainly saw the effects in the Farrer and Secret Harbour by-elections, understanding where their votes will land on an electorate-level is a more complicated analysis than would usually be done for other parties. Looking at the Victorian…

19 Sep 2026

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Scheduled 28 November 2026

Victorian State Election

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Preference Flow Data 2025

ALP

46.5%

LIB

24.2%

GRN

19.0%

ONP

4.0%

CYA

2.8%

AJP

2.4%

SOPA

1.2%

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Forecasts, data, and discussion for Australian elections

How can we predict the One Nation vote at the upcoming Victorian election?

Victorian State Election

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How can we predict the One Nation vote at the upcoming Victorian election?

Victorian State Election

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What do we expect Benambra to look like?

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